by Mark Weisbrot, guardian.co.uk, Monday 1 November 2010 02.00 GMT
Like the rally led by Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert of Comedy Central that brought hundreds of thousands of people into the streets of Washington, DC on Saturday, Brazil's election on Sunday was a contest of "Restore Sanity" versus "Keep Fear Alive" – but with the fate of millions of Brazilians seriously at stake.
Dilma Rousseff of the governing Workers' party coasted to victory against the opposition candidate José Serra, with a comfortable margin of 56 to 44%. It had been a bitter and ugly campaign, marked by allegations of corruption and malfeasance on both sides, ending with Serra's wife calling Dilma a "baby-killer."
Religious groups and leaders mobilised for the Serra campaign and accused Dilma of wanting to legalise abortion, ban religious symbols, being "anti-Christian", and a "terrorist" for her resistance to the military dictatorship during the late 1960s. The whole campaign was all too reminiscent of Republican strategies in the United States, going back to the rise of the religious right in the 1980s, through the "Swift Boat" politics and Karl Rove's "Weapons of Mass Distraction" of recent years.
Serra even had a rightwing foreign policy strategy that prompted one critic to label him "Serra Palin". His campaign threatened to alienate Brazil from most of its neighbours by accusing the Bolivian government of being "complicit" in drug trafficking and Venezuela of "sheltering" the Farc (the main guerrilla group) in Colombia.
He attacked outgoing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his refusal – along with most of the rest of South America – to recognise the government of Honduras. The Honduran government was "elected" following a military coup last year, under conditions of censorship and human rights abuses such that only the United States and a handful of mostly rightwing allies recognised it as "free and fair".
But in the end, sanity triumphed over fear, as voters proved to have been more convinced by the substantial improvements in their well-being during the Lula years than anything Serra had to offer.
It is perhaps not surprising that Serra, an economist, would try to find a way to avoid the most important economic issues that affect the lives of the majority of Brazilians. The economy has performed much better during the Lula years than during the eight years of rule by Serra's Social Democratic party (PSDB): per capita income grew by 23% from 2002 to 2010, as opposed to just 3.5% for 1994 to 2002. Measured unemployment is now at a record low of 6.2%.
Perhaps even more importantly, the majority of Brazilians enjoyed substantial gains: the minimum wage, adjusted for inflation, grew by about 65% during Lula's presidency. This is more than three times the increase during the prior eight years (that is, the presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, of Serra's party). This affects not only minimum-wage workers, but tens of millions of others whose income is tied to the minimum wage.
In addition, the government has expanded the Bolsa Familia programme, which provides small cash grants to poor families on condition of school attendance and health immunisation compliance. The programme has been successful in reducing illiteracy, and now reaches about 13m families. More than 19 million people have been shifted across the poverty line since 2003. And a new scheme of subsidies for home ownership has benefitted hundreds of thousands of families, with millions likely to take part, as it expands.
Although the brand of Republican campaign strategy borrowed by Serra was effective for most of the last four decades in the United States, it hasn't performed all that well as an export. The Brazilian electorate tired quickly of the mudslinging; and swing voters wanted to know what Serra would do for them that would be better than what the Workers' party had done. When he couldn't tell them, he lost their votes.
On the down side, the negative campaigning prevented the election campaign generally from addressing some of the vital issues of Brazil's future. Brazil's financial elite, which dominates the central bank, has an influence on economic policy that is at least as bad – and as powerful – as that of Wall Street in the United States. This is one reason why Brazil, even under Lula, has had, for many years, the highest or near-highest real interest rates in the world. Brazil's growth performance has still not been on a par with the other "Bric" countries (Russia, India, China), and the country will have to move away from some of the neoliberal policies of previous governments in order to achieve its potential.
Capital formation during the Lula years was not much different from during the Cardoso years, and was relatively low compared to many developing countries. Public investment was even lower, although it has recently begun to accelerate. The country will need a development strategy, and one that establishes new patterns of investment and consumption to advance the interests of the majority of Brazilians – some 50 million of whom remain in poverty.
The election has enormous implications for the western hemisphere, where the Obama State Department has continued, with barely a stutter, the Bush administration's strategy of "rollback" against the unprecedented independence that the left governments of South America have won over the last decade. A defeat of the Workers' party would have been a big victory for the DC foreign policy establishment.
It also has implications for the rest of the world. In May, Brazil and Turkey broke new ground in the world of international diplomacy, by negotiating a nuclear fuel swap arrangement for Iran, in an attempt to resolve the standoff over Iran's nuclear programme. The State Department was probably more upset about this than anything that Brazil had done in the region, including Lula's strong and consistent support for the government of President Hugo Chavéz in Venezuela. Serra, for his part, had attacked the Iran deal during his campaign.
Outside of Washington, then, Dilma Rousseff's win in this election, consolidating President Lula's achievements, will be greeted as good news.